2016 ELECTION MODEL -10/30 UPDATE – TRUMP SURGING

#BernieSanders #FeelTheBern #JillStein #JillNotHill {#Clinton #Trump} #MSMbias #Polls Reality

Richard Charnin's Blog

Richard Charnin
Oct. 30, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

The 2016 Election Model uses eight recent polls adjusted for party-ID weights and undecided voters.

Clinton leads the 8-poll average 45.4-42.5% with 309 EV. But when the over-weighted Democratic party-ID split is replaced by the Gallup party affiliation  survey and 75% of undecided voters are allocated to Trump, he leads by 48.2-44.1%  with a 336-202 EV lead..

The model indicates that Trump has a 92% popular vote win probability.

Note: Undecided voters typically break 75% for the challenger. Trump is the assumed challenger and HRC/Obama is the incumbent.

8-Poll…………………………….. Electoral Vote….. Trump Popular Vote
Average….. Clinton Trump….. Clinton.. Trump…Win Prob (3% MoE).
Poll………… 45.4%… 42.5%……. 309…… 229……..14%
Adjusted….. 42.8%… 44.2%…… 225…… 313……..70%
Undec……… 44.1%……

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A Tale of Two Pre-election Polls

#BernieSanders #FeelTheBern #JillStein #JillNotHill {#Clinton #Trump} #MSMbias #PollFraud #ElectionFraud

Richard Charnin's Blog

Richard Charnin
Oct. 21, 2016

Just published: 77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit 
Proving Election Fraud

This analysis illustrates how polling results (and electoral votes) are manipulated due to the over-weighting of Democrats and under-weighting of Independents. The misleading poll results are compared to the more accurate Gallup party voter affiliation weighting.

The Quinnipiac poll has Clinton leading Trump 47-40%.
Given the internal poll shares, the Party-ID split is
Ind 26%, Dem 40%, Rep 34%.
Using the Four-way Election Model, Clinton wins by 444-94 Electoral Votes.

Assuming the Gallup party affiliation survey
(Ind 40%, Dem 32%, Rep 28%):
Clinton wins by 45.4-40.5% with 354-184 EV.

The Rasmussen poll has Trump leading Clinton 43-41%.
Given the internal poll shares, the Party-ID split is
Ind 32%, Dem 40%, Rep 28%.
Using the Four-way Election Model, Trump wins by 327-211 Electoral Votes

Assuming the  Gallup party…

View original post 216 more words

Pre-election Presidential polls: preparing for a stolen election

#BernieSanders #FeelTheBern #JillStein #JillNotHill {#Clinton #Trump} #MSMbias #WikiLeaks #PollFraud #ElectionFraud

Richard Charnin's Blog

Pre-election Presidential polls: preparing for a stolen election

Richard Charnin
Oct. 19, 2016

Just published: 77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit 
Proving Election Fraud

The media wants voters to believe that Clinton has a substantial lead in the polls – while maintaining that the Russians are working with Wikileaks and  are preparing to hack the voting machines for Trump. But the media won’t discuss the history of election fraud going back decades on proprietary voting machines and central tabulators. And that 2016 Election fraud is proven by exit poll discrepancies  favoring Clinton in 24 of 26 states.

The latest Fox poll shows Clinton leading  45-39% over Trump. Johnson and Jill Stein have 5% and 3%, respectively.The Party-ID weights are 43% Dem, 38% Rep and 19% Ind.  Candidate vote shares were calculated to match the poll results.

In order to match the Fox poll, Clinton had approximately…

View original post 699 more words

Oct. 12, 2016: Online debates, focus groups and strange pre-election polls

#BernieSanders #FeelTheBern #JillStein #JillNotHill {#Clinton #Trump} #MSMbias #Debate #ElectionFraud #PollFraud

Richard Charnin's Blog

Richard Charnin
Oct.12, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud (Kindle edition)
Matrix of Deceit (Kindle)
Proving Election Fraud (Kindle)

Trump led 77-22% in the latest online debate polls of 4 million respondents. He had 59% in the online polls after the first debate. Clinton won the CNN “scientific” poll  of 537 respondents by 57-34%.

But the CNN poll indicated  that Trump did better than expected (Better 63%; Worse 21%; Same 15%). This confirms Trump’s 18% improvement in theonline polls from the first debate.

In a CNN focus group, a participant reported: After the debate, they asked all of us in the focus group if we were decided on a candidate. Out of 28 panel members, 5 said they were decided on Clinton, 2 said they were decided on Trump, and 12 said they were going to vote 3rd party. But once they…

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77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud

#BernieSanders #FeelTheBern #JillStein #JillNotHill {#Clinton #Trump} #MSMbias #ElectionFraud #77BillionOdds

Richard Charnin's Blog

Richard Charnin

Oct. 7, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud (paperback)

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud (Kindle)

The 2016 Democratic primaries have finally awakened the public to Election Fraud. Millions of voters who were unaware or in denial came to realize that our election system was rigged and that the mainstream media is complicit in covering up Election Fraud.

The media and its cadre of exit poll naysayers in the corporate media don’t dare mention the third-rail of American politics – election fraud. The media pundits remain silent on electronic vote rigging. They maintain that the exit polls are inaccurate and call truth-seeking activists conspiracy buffs.

The media is silent on the 2015 Year in Elections report, an independent research project by 2,000 elections experts from Harvard University and the University of Sydney. The report ranked the United States dead last in electoral integrity among…

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