Implausible: California Exit Poll and Reported Vote

#OurRevolution #FeelTheBern #BernieSanders #JillStein #Trump (#Clinton) #MSMbias #DNC #ElectionFraud #CA

Richard Charnin's Blog

Richard Charnin
Nov. 19, 2016

7 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

How did Clinton exceed Obama’s 2012 vote margin?

Somethings happening here.
What it is ain’t exactly clear.

WHERE DID JILL STEIN’S VOTES GO?

2012 Recorded Vote
Obama defeated Romney by 3.0 million votes: 60.2-37.1% (23.1% margin)
Party-ID: 43.3D -28.1R -28.6I

2016 (83% reported)
Clinton leads Trump by 3.4 million: 61.6-32.7% (28.9% margin)
Exit Poll: Clinton leads Trump by 3.7 million: 60.0-31.5% (28.5% margin)
Party-ID: 47D- 23R- 30I
Clinton leads Independents by 50-37%

2016  CA True Vote Model
Clinton leads Trump by 565,000 votes: 45.7-40.9% (4.8% margin)
Party-ID:  34.2D- 22.3R- 43.5I
Trump leads Independents by 47-26%

California Vote and Exit poll (CNN)
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/california

Go to Row 460
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1141167047

2016-presidential-election-table_nov-10-2016CALIFORNIA

Unadjusted EP Party-ID Clinton

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The 2016 Election Fraud Quiz

#OurRevolution #BernieSanders #JillStein #Trump #FeelTheBern (#Clinton) #MSMbias #DNC #ElectionFraud of Hillary

Richard Charnin's Blog

Richard Charnin
Updated: Nov. 23, 2016

7 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

2016 Election Model (EM)

True or False

1 The Democrats stole the primary from Bernie
2 The GOP primary was virtually fraud-free
3 Plausible: Clinton would try to steal the presidential election
4 Implausible: Clinton’s CA margin is 5.8% higher than Obama in 2012
5 Voters were disenfranchised in the primaries

6 Millions of voters were disenfranchised in the election
7 Millions of illegals voted (see Link1Link2)
8 The Reported Vote is never equal to the True Vote due to Election Fraud
9 The MSM is for Hillary although she is under criminal investigation
10 Bernie’s crowds were nearly 100X larger than Clinton

11 Trump’s crowds…

View original post 200 more words

Implausible: NY Unadjusted exit poll

#OurRevolution #FeelTheBern #BernieSanders #JillStein #Trump (#Clinton) #MSMbias #ElectionFraud #NY

Richard Charnin's Blog

Richard Charnin
Nov. 19, 2016

Reversal of Fortune:Trump did better in the exit poll than the recorded vote.
But he did even better in the True Vote Model

WHERE DID JILL STEIN’S VOTES GO?

NY 2012 Recorded Vote
Obama defeated Romney by 1.97 million (4.472-2.495) votes: 63.3-35.2% (28.1% margin)

NY 2016 CNN Reported (95% in)
Clinton leads Trump by 1.47 million votes: 58.9-37.4% (21.5% margin)
Party-ID:  48D- 26R- 26I
Clinton leads Independents by 48-42%

NY 2016 Unadjusted Exit Poll
Clinton leads Trump by 1.10 million votes: 55.8-39.8% (16.0% margin)
Party-ID:  48D- 26R- 26I
Trump leads Independents by 51-36%

NY 2016 True Vote Model
Clinton leads Trump by 798,000 votes: 50.7-42.0% (8.7% margin)
Party-ID:  39D- 19R- 42I
Trump leads Independents by 53-31%

NY 2016 Vote and Exit poll data (CNN)
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/new-york

Go to Row 490
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1141167047

2016-presidential-election-table_nov-10-2016

Unadjusted EP Pct Clinton Trump Other
Dem 48% 92% 7% 1%
Rep 26% 9% 89%

View original post 114 more words

Implausible: the Ohio Unadjusted Exit Poll

#OurRevolution #BernieSanders #FeelTheBern #JillStein {#Clinton #Trump} #MSMbias #DNC #GreenParty stolen

Richard Charnin's Blog

Richard Charnin
Nov.12, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

The  unadjusted 2016 exit polls show large discrepancies to the recorded vote in battleground states. This analysis compares the Ohio reported vote, the Edison Research unadjusted exit poll, the CNN adjusted poll (matched to the recorded vote) and the True Vote Model.

Clinton led the average of nine pre-election national polls by 45.8-43.3%.
Trump led Independents by 43.6-33.8%.

Trump won the OH  reported vote by 52.0-43.5%.  But  according to the CNN published exit poll, he won by just 47.1-47.0%. Does the discrepancy indicate that votes were rigged for Trump? Not at all, the evidence indicates that he won OH as reported.

The unadjusted exit poll discrepancies are largely due to the implausible difference…

View original post 313 more words

2016 Election Model Forecast

#BernieSanders #FeelTheBern #JillStein #JillNotHill {#Clinton #Trump} #MSMbias #Election2016 #WikiLeaks #Poll real

Richard Charnin's Blog

Richard Charnin
Nov. 7, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Unlike corporate mainstream polls, the 2016 Election Model provides two forecasts:  the Recorded Vote and the True Vote. Pollsters are usually quite accurate in their projections of the Recorded Vote. But they avoid the fraud factor. The fraudulent Recorded Vote is never the same as the True Vote.

The Election Model forecasts:
Recorded Vote: Clinton wins  by  the 9-poll average 45.8-43.3% (298-240 EV) 
True Vote: Trump wins after adjustments for Gallup weights and undecided voters by 48.5-44.3%  ( 367-171 expected EV).

The  Election Model  is based on the effects of changes in party affiliation (Dem, Rep, Ind) from 2012 to 2016. The polls are adjusted to Gallup party-affiliation survey

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2016 ELECTION MODEL (Nov.3): Trump 98% Win Probability

#BernieSanders #FeelTheBern #JillStein #JillNotHill {#Clinton #Trump} #MSMbias #Polls scientific

Richard Charnin's Blog

2016 ELECTION MODEL (Nov.3): Trump 98% Win Probability

Richard Charnin
Nov.3, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

The purpose of the Election Model  is to show the effects of changes in voter party affiliation (Dem, Rep, Ind). There are currently nine polls in the model. Each poll is shown using a) the actual poll shares and Party-ID weights and b) the actual poll shares using the Gallup party-affiliation survey. Gallup is the only poll dedicated to national voter party affiliation.

Undecided voters are allocated to derive the final adjusted TRUE poll share. Typically the challenger (in this case Trump) gets approximately 75% of the undecided vote.

Clinton leads Trump 44.9-43.3%  in the actual 9-poll average.

After adjusting the polls for the Gallup…

View original post 801 more words